And during recent decades Nassau has become increasingly dense and diverse in population, leading many parts of the county to resemble New York City’s outer boroughs in appearance and demographics.
This is more the case for the southern half of the county, particularly the Town of Hempstead, than it is for the North Shore. Parts of southern and central Nassau have reached population densities on a par with those found in the outer reaches of Queens. Almost the entire southern half of Nassau County has reached population densities greater than 5,000 people per square mile, a level which is generally considered the marker of a “dense urban environment.”
The North Shore, particularly Oyster Bay, is significantly less dense with more open space and larger lot sizes. The difference between north and south Nassau is particularly stark when looking at a satellite view: the dominant color in the North is the green of trees and open space while the dominant color in the south is the gray of parking lots and densely packed structures.
Differences between North Shore and South are also evident when looking at the socio-economic data.
The wealth of the North Shore communities, where most households have incomes of over $125,000, boosts Nassau’s overall median income to over $92,000, making it the wealthiest county in New York State by this measure.
On the other hand, some areas, particularly in central Hempstead, have median household incomes in the middle and working-class $40,000 to $75,000 range.
Differences in education closely follow the contrasts in median household income. While the majority of North Shore residents have college degrees, the majority of South Shore residents do not. The contrast is again particularly strong in central Hempstead where only a small minority of residents has finished college.
As we’ve seen in regions throughout New York, differences in education have a direct relationship with differences in work. Most residents in the north half of Nassau work in “white collar” job in business, management, or professions (e.g. architects, designers, teachers).
Residents in the south half, particularly in central and west Hempstead, are more likely to be employed in either “blue collar” work in industry, construction, and transportation, or in the service sector.
Southern Nassau also has a higher concentration of immigrant population, most densely in central Hempstead and also in western Hempstead. Parts of the Town of North Hempstead also have growing numbers of immigrants.
In all these factors, we see how many parts of Nassau County increasingly resemble the socio-economic profile of Queens: urban density, lower middle to middle class incomes, a workforce concentrated in the blue collar and service sectors, and an increasing immigrant population.
If one were to attempt to draw a shape around the areas of Nassau that most resemble Queens, the following shape would be drawn consisting of the sixteen villages of Valley Stream, North Valley Stream, Elmont, Franklin Square, West Hempstead, Lakeview, Hempstead, Uniondale, Roosevelt, Baldwin, Freeport, Baldwin Harbor, East Garden City, Carle Place, Westbury, and New Cassel.
In Nassau, this dense working-class concentration is also where the county’s black and Hispanic populations are concentrated.
Within the area of central Nassau highlighted above, the voting-age population is now 68% minority, up from 57% minority a decade ago. In the rest of Nassau outside of this cluster, 79% of the voting-age population is non-Hispanic white.
81% of the non-Hispanic black voters and almost 50% of the Hispanic voting-age population in Nassau lives in this concentrated area.
In Nassau County as a whole, but especially within this cluster, the trend towards an increasing minority population is accelerating.
Overall in Nassau, the non-Hispanic white voting-age population declined by 9% since 2000, but within the central Hempstead cluster it declined by more than 22%.
The non-Hispanic black voting-age population of Nassau increased by almost 16% and the Hispanic population boomed by more than 48%.
Even more significant in terms of proportional increase has been the rise of the Asian population.
But this is a distinct pattern from what’s happened in central Hempstead. The increase of the Asian community has been in northern Nassau, an outgrowth of the tremendous rise in the Asian population of northeast Queens. Asian voting-age population in Nassau increased by a remarkable 68% since 2000 and Asians now account for 7.4% of the voting age population of the county. The growth of the Asian community in North Hempstead and Oyster Bay is on track to be an important factor in 2020 redistricting.
Returning to the issue of central Hempstead, Nassau’s voting age population is now nearly 24% black and Hispanic, up from 18% ten years ago. With this population concentrated in a geographically compact area that also shares many other demographic commonalities, one might expect the communities of west and central Hempstead to be joined in a political district whenever possible.
Unfortunately Nassau County provides a textbook example of political gerrymandering at work.
As is the case in Suffolk, the Senate districts of Nassau County do not appear at first glance to be gerrymanders. Districts are relatively compact and divided between North Shore and South Shore.
But gerrymandering is not really about the shape of a district. In partisan gerrymandering, the shape of a district is merely the side effect of the attempt by the political party in control of the line-drawing process to favor itself and limit opportunities for the opposition party. This is usually done by cracking communities that the line drawers regard as “undesirable” to their political objectives.
As in Suffolk, this is exactly the case in Nassau with the State Senate lines.
Districts 9 (Skelos-R) and 7 (Martins-R) divide the black community in Elmont right down the middle, and Districts 6 (Hannon-R) and 8 (Fuschillo Jr.-R) cut the central Hempstead black community in half.
Dividing the black population of Hempstead between four senate districts effectively shields the incumbents by preventing the community from the opportunity to field a competitive candidate.
The south Nassau Senate lines also divide the Hispanic community which is particularly concentrated in Hempstead and Freeport.
The division between District 6 and 8, between the villages of Hempstead and Uniondale and the village of Roosevelt and Freeport, has been in place for decades despite the demographic commonalities and continued growth of the minority communities.
Rather than continue this partisan gerrymandering, a different Senate district can be drawn in Nassau that closely follows the “demographically distinct” area of Central Hempstead highlighted above.
With the black and Hispanic populations in Nassau now accounting for 24% of the voting-age population, these communities should have the opportunity to field competitive candidates for at least one of Nassau’s five senate seats.
In Congress, Nassau is divided between District 2 (Israel-D), District 3 (King-R), District 4 (McCarthy-D), and District 5 (Ackerman-D).
District 3 (King-R) stands out as the only district in Nassau that crosses North-South rather than East-West. As we’ve seen above, the North and South shores are demographically distinct, so we question the rationale behind this district’s shape.
As we discussed in our Queens blog, District 5 extends far into Queens and includes Jackson Heights-Corona and downtown Flushing. These are the most densely urban, low-income, immigrant areas of the borough and it makes little sense to combine them with the wealthy suburbs of North Shore Nassau.
Districts 2, 3, and 5 could be rearranged to solve these issues and keep the North Shore-South Shore division consistent.
In the Assembly, many of the Nassau districts are drawn in very odd twisting shapes that completely ignore village and school district boundaries.
District 18 (Hooper-D) is a majority-black district drawn in the working-class areas of central Hempstead as good government redistricting principles suggest it should be. But for some reason, large pieces of the villages and school districts of Uniondale and Roosevelt are carved out. The district also takes half of the village of Merrick, making District 19 (McDonaugh-R) non-contiguous with its section in Freeport.
District 13 (Lavine-D) is another puzzler, forming a looping horse shoe shape around District 15 (Montesano-R) and dividing numerous villages and schools districts. Demographics don’t point to any rationale for this shape.
The Nassau Assembly lines could stand for a lot of cleaning up to conform to communities of interest and important local political boundaries.
Since it’s clear what changes should be made if fair, non-partisan redistricting principles were followed, Long Island will be a critical litmus test as to whether LATFOR is capable of drawing anything resembling a non-partisan map.
